In its latest Monsoon update today, IMD finally declared the onset on Monsoon today, 8th June.
It has mentioned that conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest Monsoon into some parts of central Arabian Sea, coastal Karnataka, remaining parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of south interior Karnataka, some parts of south Andhra Pradesh and some more parts of central Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.
Previously it had mentioned rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be ABOVE NORMAL (>104% to 110% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 108% of LPA over North-West India, 113% of LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula and 94% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ±8%. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% of its LPA during July and 104% of LPA during August both with a model error of ±9%.
Elaborating the implications of monsoon arrival for the Agri sector, Religare Broking has said in its report that a delay of 7 days could lead to lower sowing area, delayed sowing and lower crop productivity. Religare mentioned that agri markets have failed to show any strong corrections in prices generally associated with arrival of Monsoon.
It says that all eyes will now be on its progress towards rest of India – mainly Central and North-West. Satisfactory progress and good rains will help in sowing and keep uptrend in prices limited. However, excessively heavy rains may lead to crop damage also in coming weeks after crops are sown. Also, if rainfall activities weaken, that too would have adverse impact on the crop sowing.
Thus even if overall rainfall projections are on the higher side, the amount of rains in growing areas would be very important in determining the crop production and the overall price trend in the medium to long term. As of now, with summer Festive season domestic demand and export demand rising in the mandis, overall Agri market sentiments look firm as firmness in International markets too support prices. (Share Manthan, June 08, 2016)
